Friday, August 7, 2020

Is Arizona's Covid-19 Infection Rate Actually Decreasing?

Hospitalization rates are, in my opinion, a better indicator than positive tests and the good news is that AZ hospitals are seeing less of a surge, for now at least.

However, I believe that community spread is widely ongoing in Maricopa County based on the anecdotal evidence I've seen and my knowledge of the virus.

Test results in AZ can take 2-3 weeks. Fewer and fewer people whom I know are interested in being tested because of these slow results and also because of overall Covid-19 fatigue.

Unfortunately, the press to open schools will probably reverse the downward trajectory in the hospitalization rate. I'm praying for an influenza-free fall:

Steinbach, Alison (2020, August 6). COVID-19 tests in Arizona dropped dramatically in July. Here's why that's an issue. The Arizona Republic.

Why are test numbers dropping?

The peak for diagnostic testing statewide was in late June and early July. During those several weeks, an average of more than 107,000 tests were conducted each week, according to the state health department's COVID-19 data dashboard.

But during the week of July 12, that dropped to about 93,200 diagnostic tests conducted, falling further to about 66,200 tests the week of July 19 and about 51,400 tests the week of July 26.

Over the course of just three weeks in July, weekly diagnostic tests conducted dropped by well over half. Arizona is now back to testing at the level it was two months ago.

Dr. Cara Christ, the state health director, said "a number of reasons" could explain the decreased demand for tests.

"It may be that people are feeling fine, so they’re not looking for the tests because it’s circulating less in the community," Christ told The Arizona Republic. "It could be that they’re hearing about the long wait times — that's why it’s so critical for us to fix that."

Wait times have improved significantly in the last week, but for weeks prior, many test results were taking up to two weeks or longer to come back, meaning frustration for individuals and no use for public health interventions. Because of the long waits, people may have just decided to skip getting tested....


  1. Every effort to prevent the spread is similar to all those dams and levies in China. One day the dam breaks, the floods occur and a nightmare of water breaks free.
    Herd immunity is the ultimate solution.

  2. How can you let these posts go through. It posted a death threat

  3. There are old beat up dams across the USA
    Some of the worse are where the TVA has reactors. The flooding there, from those dams could set off three beat up old reactors in their wake.


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