Saturday, September 8, 2018

Making Risk Decisions at Fukushima Daiichi

Contaminated water production at Fukushima Daiichi continues unabated. Storage is limited and there are explosive risks for containment of highly contaminated water. The various water filtration systems that have been adopted have had limited success because they have only removed certain radionuclides - such as radiocesium - leaving filtered water contaminated with radioiodine and tritium. In my blog I documented that strontium wasn't filtered until 2014.

An editorial in The Asahi Shimbun urges Japan’s task force of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to communicate and consult with Fukushima residents before dumping the 900 tons of contaminated water into the Pacific Ocean.

The article states that the ministry has considered 5 options for addressing the problem of contaminated water, but lists only 3 of them (not sure what happened to the other two options under consideration):

release into the Pacific Ocean after dilution
injection into deep underground strata
release into the air after vaporization

Why are there only 3 of 5 viable options described in the article? What were the other two options?

Are there options that don’t lead to significant contamination?

Tritium is challenging to extract, although there have been improvements (e.g., see here for discussion

I cannot help but wonder whether options have been unnecessarily narrowed by the value criteria deployed in this very important risk decision?

According to the article, the Ministry task force decided on dumping using the criteria of “quickest and least costly”:

EDITORIAL: All options need to be weighed for Fukushima plant tainted water
September 6, 2018 The Asahi Shimbun
A task force of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has considered five options, including release into the Pacific Ocean after dilution, injection into deep underground strata and release into the air after vaporization. The group has concluded that dumping the water into the ocean would be the quickest and least costly way to get rid of it. This is seen as the best option within the government.

I teach risk communication and in that class students are required to make a decision-tree mapping different options and probable outcomes for each option in order to maximize the utility of risk decision making.

This process of rational assessment of options requires that value criteria be prioritized and specific values be formalized as driving evaluation of options.

From the editorial cited above, it appears that the pre-eminent VALUES deployed in the ministry’s risk decision mapping were “quickest” and “least costly.”

While expediency can be clearly and narrowly operationalized, “cost” is a bit more ambiguous.

Did the ministry’s operationalization of cost include long-term costs to communities and ecologies or did it merely address short-term direct expenditures at the Fukushima Daiichi site?

What costs are likely to accrue from the decision to dump water contaminated with significant amounts of tritium and radioiodine into the Pacific Ocean?

Tritium and radioiodine will not only bioaccumulate in aquatic life but will also enter the water cycle, spreading contamination through precipitation as well.

Were the economic, social, and ecological costs for such an assault modeled at all?

I strongly doubt that any biological impacts were attributed to tritium contamination because there is a myth that nuclearists tell themselves and that myth is that tritium is harmless. That myth is told because tritium contamination has become ubiquitous, especially in ground water near nuclear sites (see here for discussion of ubiquity). 

It is a myth because research has documented that tritium bioaccumulates in marine life. Tritium and radioiodine can also bioaccumulate in people, posing risks for cancer and reproductive/development problems.

Would other options be available if the ministry were to re-frame their risk decision making either by 
1.) incorporating long-term and full-spectrum cost-accounting or
2.) substituting different value criteria prioritizing life over financial savings?
Risk decision making that narrows options and prioritizes short term formulations of expediency and cost are predictably going to result in the most catastrophic long-term consequences.


Pacific Ocean tipping points

Bioaccumulation: Cesium is One Among the 1000 Radionuclides Unleashed by Fukushima Bioaccumulation: Cesium is One Among the 1000 Radi...

Contaminated Water at Fukushima Daiichi Majia's Blog: Contaminated Water at Fukushima Daiichi ...

Will Fukushima Daiichi Kill Vast Swathes of Ocean life Majia's Blog: Will Fukushima Daiichi Kill Vast Swathes of ...

Endless Atmospheric and Ocean Emissions Majia's Blog: Endless Atmospheric and Ocean Emissions

How much Fukushima Fuel is in the Ocean

Ocean Releases Majia's Blog: Ocean Releases

Humanity’s End Foretold in Destruction of Oceans: Majia's Blog: Humanity's End Foretold in Destruction of Oceans

Compromised Oceans mean Compromised People: Majia's Blog: Compromised Oceans Mean Compromised People

Radiation plumes headed to N. America Majia's Blog: Fukushima Radiation Plumes in the Ocean Headed to ...


    The dose of I131, used for thyroid ablation is about 30 billionths of a gram. It is not necessary to do any radiation modeling for that. I131 is used as a pharmaceutical drug, to destroy thyroid tissue in place of surgery. There is little need for complicated individual dose calculations. There is certainly, no need for any bs radiation modeling. If a bolus of radiopharmaceutical I131 is administered via oral solution, it will find its way to the thyroid to do its dirty deed.

    I 131 is also a fission product . An acute dose of I131 in the environment, rarely reaches the saturation level of a radiopharmaceutical administered, in a hospital for a thyroidectomy. Global thyroid damage will be observed, for those who are unlucky enough to absorb higher boluses of I131, in an exposure. 

    Similarly Cesium 137 is acutely toxic to heart tissue, at 100 billions of a gram. No bullshit radiation modelling is necessary to establish this fact. The observation of heart effects from cesium 137/134 exposure is quite discernable, from chernobyl and belarissian victims of chernobyl observed by bandhechevsky, yablokov, and miller.

    I am constantly amazed, at how willingly,experts are so quick to lowball morbidity and mortality calculations and effects, in the face of Chernobyl and Fukushima.

    Tritium is mostly what the Japanese want to dump from Fukushima. It can bombard, and even attach to tissue covalently. Like radioactice Carbon 14 can. There was a large study, that showed tritium increases cancer 20 times. It is teratogenic. There are several case studies, of workers with increased rates of granulomas and lymphomas who were chronically exposed for years. 
    The pronukers go on and on, about k40 which is a nonstart. Even the gaslighters do it. It is Irrelevent.  

    HOrmesis is just bogus .  They cannot even make CRISPR work to try to repair dna in people with genetic illness. That is because of the errors, made by cells and enzymes in living cells. The cells themselves are damaged . They cannot do dna repair with enzyme cleavings and insertions properly or dna polymerases. Radionuclide hormesis assertions are fraudulent mainly because exposure to poisons don not inthe future decrease vulnerability to a poison. Quite the contrary, exposure cause bioccumulation and damage and makes mortality and early death much more likely..

    Yhere are many mechanisms of damge from radionuclides to the body. Radionucides do to the body and tissue than SIMPLY act as mutagens, causing dna cleavages and chromosone breaks.. They are cytotoxic. Dr busby talked about a study at los alamos where dogs were exposed to small amounts of plutonium, in their lungs. They all died from lung cancer in a couple of weeks because a threshold of acute damge was achieved that caused irrevwrsible damage!

    1.  Does that sound like hormesis to you? 30 millionths of a gram of iodine 131 in a cocktail , will destroy a thyroid gland. Look ir up in a pharmacology book. That is what pharmaceutical iodine 131 is used for . 

      Dr. Busby is concerned with radiation modelling, because of his work with the european commision. . Dr Busby understands that radionuclide toxicology and bioccumulation, are far more important than ambient radiation exposure because external radiation diminishes to the sqaure of distance and ingested radionuclides are inside you, irradiating and poisoning you . Prof busby talks about how they did not even have instruments, during the test era to measure what radionuclides were in fallout. They do know. 

      They know how teratogenic,mutagenic, carcinogenic, cytotoxic, are. They know how they cause heritable defects. Environmental toxicologists and professionals like Marco Kaltofen and physicians like Dr. Conrad Miller kind of specific damage things like cesium137 can do to the heart. Plutonium to the liver and lungs and brain because of the wait mimics iron. Strontium to the bones, californium to redblood cells, iodine to the thyroid. THEY ARE ALL INCREDIBLY TERATOGENIC. EVERY MEDICALTEXT AND TX BOOK WILL VERIFY THIS!! HIGH enough exposure leads to a very high prevalence of sterility as was seen after winsdcale and chernobyl. There are hundreds of highly txic radionuclides in Hanford, in mayak, in chernobyl, in france by nuke plants ate fukushima. They all include tritium, radium, uranium, polonium, americium, rcesium, iodine 129, 131

    2. There is the misinformation, that there is a difference between natural and manmade radionuclides. Saying there is,  is just crap. There is one radionuclide that has a billion year half life. That isotope idoes not emit such damaging radiation. It is usually in aqueous soln. 

      There are many dangerous natural radionuclides. Radium, thorium, uranium and and polonium are some of the most prolific. There are some manmade radionucides, that are heavy gamma emmiters.  That means they can kill you, from acute radiation poisoning more quickly than others and cause more massive damage more quickly. CESIUM 127, COBQLT 60, IRIDIUM192, STRONTIUM 90ARE SUCH ELEMENTS!

      Polonium, radium, uranium are some of the most dangerous radionuclides because, they are in a lot of drinking water now, as contaminants from human foolishness.

      Some bufoons will say a hot particle or fiber can only effect one cell in the body at a time.when breathed or absorbed. They can lodge in lungs or endothelial tissue and irradiate clusters of cells. There  is misinformation and gaslighting everywhere on the internet. Especially when it comes to radionuclide and nuclear issues.

      There is no way to store nuclear waste safely. Uranium mine waste can be diluted and reburied.  Medical isotopes, any purified radionuclide, reactor waste, enriched uranium, plutonium all contain hi level radionuclides. They generate heat, from their radioactive- nature. Many are highly chemically-reactive too. They also emit beta, gamma and neutrons that will chenge/degrade the walls of the material, they are encased in. They can generate gases. They can catalyze exothermic reactions with substance in around where they are stored. They can generate combustable-explosive gases like hydrogen. The nuclearists, have gone out of their way, to  keep these things a secret for years. Dr Busby has gone out of his way to explain this. Especially in the case of the swedes wanting to use copper casks for nuclear waste

      Some misinformants will say that  radioactive elements do not do decay heat. Some do more than others, otherwise they could not be used in radiosotope thermal generators. Heat decay was noted to cause hanford cesium tanks to leak. There was  a bunch of nuclear waste, that exploded in nevada. Two large casks exploded in idaho recently. More people, have woke up to the dangerous nature of hi level radionuclides and, how hard it is to store them. The kitty litter in wipp did not spontaneously catch fire. The plutonium helped. Oxidized plutonium is also known to be pyrogenic.There is no safe way to store hi level radionuclides.
      The nuclear industry and govt does not want this known. The agents do not either.

  2. Extinctions of species are a common earth event. We may be slated for that fate. We just may not have what it takes to avoid and withstand things we have set in motion. In which case it does not greatly matter which method the Japanese take to dispose of the water as no matter where it goes it will be harmful for a long time.

    What matters is this: we have no guarantee that we will survive many more centuries if that long. What if anything can we do to enhance our survivability? Can we get a sufficient number of people to pay attention and take the necessary political action to implement good ideas if we come up with them. I certainly do not consider globalism as a good solution. Which nations might take the lead? Etc.

    The question is what ears are listening to news about risks? I am sure the higher strata are deaf and have been for a long time. Also keep in mind that no matter how well behaved we humans are or become we can not control the asteroids which may already have earth as their target.

  3. What's Wrong with Earth's Magnetic Field?

  4. Imagine that it is about the middle of the tenth century B.C. and the climate is again warming as the Yonger Dryas comes to an end. You may not know it of course but you and your proginy can look forward to a very long period of relative abundance and warmth, a period of relative inter planetary calm. No major sky rocks will wreck the climate. It must have been an inspiring time. . . No more bouquets of Dryas flowers.

    But what about now? In addition to all the many toxins of our own creation we may well be entering a period of prolonged earth change. In fact I think we are. Volcanoes, earth quakes, perhaps techtonic plates shifting . . .the sorts of events the will drop the human population down to perhaps a few millons scattered all overt he globe. And these may be scarred by the increases UV, with lungs plagued by particles from volcanic ash, with new diseases taking advantage of weakened bodies. So the population may drop down again to less than a million who manage to survive with scant resources. Technology will be back to the nineteenth century generally. There will be books and education. But the ability to create radios and TV will be gone. Some internal combustion engines will be available for agricultural purposes. Some relatively modern medicine minus the fancy surgeries.
    I am sure you get the idea.

    So what do you do now? This goes way beyond being a prepper. Way beyond anything gov can do. In fact gov is on the way out of existence as we know it. Communities will grow up around sages and shaman. More tribal. This status quo may last for ten or fifteen thousand years until stability returns and then a slow gradual climb back to some new kind of civilization.

    If as is likely the changes are precipitous rather than gradual, it will be an ominous time and very scary. Once rock bottom occurs people can breathe easy and begin to plan an ascent. But who knows when that will be?

    This is not science fiction though a science fiction writer of skill could do a very good job of characterizing it. And this forecast matches life on earth during the past few million years. If months were centuries then who would expect autumn and who in autumn would anticipate winter?

    1. I wish this troll would take an engineering class, or a biochemistry or cellular biology class or even a modern basic biology class. Of course it will not because, it is a propagandist. There will be nothing left, unless the nuclear madness is stopped. Nothing left of life on earth because in very small amounts radionuclides, destroy the capability of the biochemical reactions that give us life, to be possible. Unless the manufacture of the radionuclide tsunami is ended and radionuclides are sequestered, our end will be much sooner than later. There is no way back to the good ol days.

      No one will survive many more nuclear accidents. No one will survive, around the the nuclear nuclear waste with tritium, cesium 137 or plutonium in it. Just being in populated areas with little protection is bad enough. When it catches fire no life will be left because of all the radionuclide and chemical death that is already here.

      It will have to be removed in the same highly technical, mechanized and regimented fashion that the shit was brought out in the first place to prevent accidents and keep all the workers from dying as they really are at fukushima.

      The reactors and fuel pools will all have to be torn down and sequeatered with the waste. Same for the temp waste storage.

    2. Who's the real troll? I think we have all read well written and very scientific presentations of what you more or less want to communicate--though with less than literary excellence. I guess that is an elliptical way of saying that your comment is boring. Blah blah blah. And you are wrong. You are exaggerating. People will survive and eventually thrive. Sorry. And if what you claim were the case why bother as no one is listening and no one is going to say, hey, there is this comment Mr President and Mr Putin and Mr Xi. we had better heed this dude's serious warning. Do you seriously believe the CIA is following your track of advanced wisdom? Has your ego inflated to the point where you belive your own diabolical imagings? I guess you do. Go for a long walk. A last long one before the sky falls!

    3. Willian st george. Why do you troll a blog concerned with the Fukushima Nuclear catastrophe and ongoing nuclear issues? Why do you post pronuclear nonsense and pronuclear, political nonsense on an antinuclear blog?

    4. The article and comment must have really struck a chord with the troll. It is working in overdrive.

    5. I am not pro nuclear; I am pro coal though. I am disappointed that the creators of the atomic bomb did not delay the initial trial of the bomb. Using it in Japan was a colossal mistake. I am the one who views much technology as coming out of Pandora's box. I am a big fan of Small Is Beautiful and intermediate technology. However, I try to avoid putting energy into futile tasks. Eliminating the nuclear at this point is practically impossible. Were the Left not reviling Russia there would be a chance. Etc. Wake up and strive for better reading comprehension. The whole Russian collusion has simply pushed the US and Russia apart. Idiotic. And finally humans are in a fix.

    6. St. GEORGE IS A pronuke Troll here to Harrass Majia and other posters. We all know who :::Michael Shellenberger:Notorious paid pronuke shill is. We all know thorium is converted into plutonium in thorium nuclear reactors. William St George or unknown as it goes by now is a paid operative.


      William St. George August 6, 2018 at 9:46 PM
      Why I changed my mind about nuclear power | Michael Shellenberger
      I don't agree with him but it shows a tred.
      Thorium can give humanity clean, pollution free energy | Kirk Sorensen
      I guess we will figure it out as we go along or become extinct. Either way it will cease to be a problem. What I notice is that "liberals" get their idealism mixed up with their practical and come to impractical solutions. I still say coal. I still think CO2 is a hoax. I still think the climate is primarily sun related. Being either Democrat or Republican, either conservative or liberal, is a waste of time and energy. As we know extinction is part of this planets life cycle. I am sure the dinosaurs also hoped for better than they got.


  5. Why did u post the thorium and schellenberger propaganda then lying sack of shit

  6. 29 different 6.0+ earthquakes in the past 30 days - Phenomenal + Unprecedented Activity

    I consider insults to be an expression of fear. Why are you so fearful? I have no idea what "thorium and schellenberger propaganda" are. It is pretty clear that the level of comprehension is low.


      "Pay for Play in the Nuclear Indusry Privatizes Profits, Socializes Costs, and Individualizes Hazards"

      St. GEORGE IS A pronuke Troll here to Harrass Majia and other posters.

      We all know who :::Michael Shellenberger:Notorious paid pronuke shill is. We all know thorium is converted into plutonium in thorium nuclear reactors. William St George or unknown as it goes by now is a paid operative.


      Unknown August 6, 2018 at 9:46 PM
      Why I changed my mind about nuclear power | Michael Shellenberger
      I don't agree with him but it shows a tred.
      Thorium can give humanity clean, pollution free energy | Kirk Sorensen
      I guess we will figure it out as we go along or become extinct. Either way it will cease to be a problem. What I notice is that "liberals" get their idealism mixed up with their practical and come to impractical solutions. I still say coal. I still think CO2 is a hoax. I still think the climate is primarily sun related. Being either Democrat or Republican, either conservative or liberal, is a waste of time and energy. As we know extinction is part of this planets life cycle. I am sure the dinosaurs also hoped for better than they got.


  7. Burning coal polutes the air water and food with megatons of radium, polonium, thorium and protractinium annually. It is one of the prime reasons 200 million or more americans drink radioactive water.

    1. Fuko the clown amd its nazi, white supremacist and fascist billionaire backers, stole it's way into power with promises of poisoning the shit out of things, more nuclear weapon and power bs. Coal poisoning. Now the econmomy is worse amd the world is worse. All of its dumn whitetrash nazis like spencer are bankrupt. Only about 1 percent of the nonrich population are white nationalists like fuko. They lie they cheated their way into power and made their constituents way worse off!The the dumn sukers are still trying to push the impressikm that this hugley melting pot society ever supported grotesquely evil systems of racist oppression, genocide and apartheid they are gaslighting us with.. There is no humanly discernable-genetic differerence between different ethnicities on earth. We all bleed red blood. Yet some of the genetically damaged nucleoape, warmonger moorlocks from the northern hemisphere, keep their criminal bs going. It Will not fly in multiethnic US.

  8. New Hibakusha
    The beginning of the degradation of physical and mental abilities in japan from sudy of 4000 by Dr Mita


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.