Saturday, March 28, 2020

Covid-19 Scenarios Updated 3/28/2020



Across my posts I've been trying to scenario plan based on the variables I see as most predictive of disease and social trajectories.

I identified several key disease variables:
1. Viral Susceptibility to UV

2. Viral Mutation rate

3. Human Susceptibility to Re-Infection due to limited antibody production and/or viral mutation

4. Human Susceptibility to Worsening Reactions with Subsequent Infections due to, for example, a "cytokine" storm unleashed by virus hijacked immune system

5. Human Response - e.g., support for people losing income, medical support, etc.


LESSONS LEARNED SO FAR

1. Viral susceptibility to UV is high but not sure if warm weather enough to beat it back

2. Viral mutation still unknown. The virus has been described as having a metaphoric "code-repair" function but an Icelandic study allegedly (I cannot verify as its non-English) has already documented minute changes in this minute RNA plague.

3. SOME GOOD NEWS Human susceptibility to reinfection - There is growing research that we produce enough antibodies to prevent infection short term (months at least) and that babies born to exposed mothers also have antibodies.  However, inflammation may result and make us more susceptible to other diseases.

4. UNKNOWN Worsening disease conditions either from later re-infection to mutated virus or to viral dormancy. Dormancy is another problem that is emerging as critically important.  Yet, we don't have full understanding of dormancy given we are in the early crisis stages of this disease outbreak.

5. HEROISM and a NATIONAL CLUSTERF_ _ _! The POLICY response in the US has been disastrous. However, the nation's health care providers (and supporters), food supply workers, sanitation workers, etc. have labored heroically. Maybe they should be the ones running national policy!  


WHAT REMAINS UNANSWERED? DORMANCY & LONG-TERM REINFECTION?

Here is the best article I've read on the DORMANCY problem (like chicken pox and herpes):

Cherian, Dona & Chaudhary, S. B. (2020, March 10). Coronavirus: What does a COVID-19 recovery mean for you. Gulf News. Available https://gulfnews.com/uae/coronavirus-what-does-a-covid-19-recovery-mean-for-you-1.1583824222405


OTHER RESOURCES

MedCram @MedCramVideos ·Mar 23 https://twitter.com/MedCramVideos/status/1242185137678200834 Coronavirus Quick Video Update 42 with Dr. Seheult: Immunity to COVID-19 and is Reinfection Possible? https://youtu.be/q4P91VrfPGw


Antibodies in infants born to mothers with covid-19 pneumonia. Journal of American Medicine (2020).  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763854?guestAccessKey=94dea2dd-6b19-4d8d-89ce-10be3f51ab11&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=032620

5 comments:

  1. "The POLICY response in the US has been disastrous." What policy?

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  2. In Panama the virus has not been deterred by hot weather. First case was found in early March. Testing has provided evidence of 1,100 cases in a country of 4.5 million. One could surmise that some cases are not on the radar. The average March temperature is 94 degrees. This is the dry season where rainfall and relative humidity at this of year are lower than normal. The sun is strong. Forceful and thoughtful protective measures have been put in place to guard public health.

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  3. Good blog. Thanks. Probly helped many people

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