Sunday, March 22, 2020

More Covid-19 Scenarios and a Universal Income

The Financial Times has a very good article covering a study produced by the UK's Imperial College modeling the covid-19 disease trajectory:
Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, John Burn-Murdoch and Alex Barker (March 19 2020) The shocking coronavirus study that rocked the UK and US. The Financial Times,
This model predicts spring and fall (November) peaks for infection.

The model's full assumptions are not detailed in the FT article. Here is the link to the executive summary of the study

The lead researcher, Neil Ferguson, argues that HERD IMMUNITY is not going to work with this pandemic and that SUPPRESSION is the only option.

See additional discussion here:

That means that we as a society are going to have to figure out very fast how to make quarantine work without undue suffering and civil unrest.

Unfortunately, our "repressive" state apparatuses are too likely to invoke POLICING but what we need now is a UNIVERSAL INCOME to protect people from economic collapse.

We will descend into chaos if we don't provide sustenance and support for the people.


Most people will listen and respond to well-argued, well-substantiated reasoning when delivered by people that are trustworthy and are perceived as expert and well-intentioned.

Where is that crisis communication now? We need a lot more of it.

We must put into place NOW, while we can, the INFRASTRUCTURE that will allow us to make it through this trial.

Cooperation and mutual aid are key to our future.


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  2. The Imperial College is still using an R0 of 2.2 to 2.4 when it is OBVIOUSLY to anyone with knowledge and a pulse, over 10

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