Thursday, March 19, 2020

COVID-19 Scenarios

A few days ago I posted my predictions for coronavirus scenarios here.

Today, Yahoo has an interesting article on disease trajectory scenarios here:
Adriana Belmonte (19, March 2020). Coronavirus: Infectious disease expert details 3 scenarios for the U.S. Yahoo Finance

….How will the coronavirus play out in the U.S.? According to Penn State University infectious disease expert, Maciek Boni, it depends on which scenario the country finds itself in.

“One of them is the Chinese scenario, where we do put together social distancing, a measure that’s so extreme that we do manage to suppress it within a month,”

Boni said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “But at that point, we’re not out of the woods yet and we don’t know what the endgame is, because when you lift those suppressive measures, the virus is able to come back.”

“Scenario two is if the virus is able to transmit successfully during the summer,” Boni explained, “then the current epidemic wave that we’re just at the beginning of — people are talking about this being over in a few weeks but it’s ... not almost over at all. So if the virus can transmit in the summer, we’re going to see an epidemic wave that lasts through the summer, possibly to the end of the summer.”

….Then there is scenario three: if the virus cannot transmit successfully during the summer. “We’ll see lower transmission in the summer, which would be really fortuitous for us, because it will give us time to prepare for the second wave that will come in the winter,” Boni said.

“It might start in October, November, when school gets back into session and when the winter turns down again,” he added. “And then we’d have a major epidemic wave the following winter. So it’s probably 12 months of hardship for all of us.”

The three variables I see as most predictive of infection are these:

1. Viral susceptibilities to UV radiation and mutation tendencies

2. Degree of human susceptibility to re-infection - especially when viewed in context of viral mutations

3. Nature of human biological responses to re-infection - do re-infections wear down immune system? Do re-infections result in worsening biological effects?


That said, the SOCIAL response by government, business, civil society and everyday people will by far have the greatest impact on outcomes.



Apoorva Mandavilli (Feb. 29, 2020). They recovered from the coronavirus. Were they infected again? The New York Times

Wan, Y., Shang, J., Sun, S., Jai, W., Chen, J., Geng, Q, He, L., Chen, Y., Wu, J., Shi, Z., Zhou, Y., Du, L., Li, F. (2020). Molecular mechanism for anti-body dependent enhancement of coronavirus. Journal of Virology, 94 (5) e02015-19; DOI: 10.1128/JVI.02015-19.



    Do not listen to conspiracy theories or factoids. It is serious. Covid 19 is not a bioweapon.  86 percent of the people, who already heve the virus in the USA, do not know they have it.

    1. In the end, it's not going to matter. The next bio-weapon they send will not be invisible.

    2. There are already weaponized microorganisms, that are epidemic and endemic in america. Best to isolate now if you want to survive a little longer. Cannot do anything about where they came from, just survive if you can.

    3. These programs ended in 1969. Some are problems in the USA
      People are vulnerable to them as co-morbitities to covid making it more deadly. Flu and covid sufferers have poor outcomes

      When the U.S. biological warfare program ended in 1969 it had developed mass-produced, battle-ready biological weapons in the form of agents that cause tularemia, brucellosis, Q-fever, VEE. In addition to the agents that were ready to be used, the U.S. program conducted research into the weaponization of agents. They included: smallpox, equine encephalitis and WEE, Hantavirus, melioidosis, yellow fever, psittacosis, typhus, dengue fever,
      A U.S. facility at Fort Terry focused primarily on anti-animal biological agents. Five other top-secret biological weapons projects were commissioned on Plum Island. Other four programs researched included , African swine fever. Miscellaneous pathogens included: Mycobacteria (tuburculosis),

      Psittacosis: Bird fever from cats and birds
      Tuleremia: In rabbits
      Hanta: In dried rodent urine across USA. People continue to contract it
      Brucelliosis: Bad milk
      Typhus: In rat fleas
      Q Fever:Flu
      Various flu viruses

      Equine encephalitis: Mosquitos
      Mycobacterium : Systemic illness, crohns like disease

      Tick born disease


    The symptoms of covid19 are a dry cough, shortness of breath, a sore throat and fever

  3. Microsoft Covid Tracker

  4. Ohio said last week there could be as many as 100,000 cases in Ohio

    Mike Levine
    March 20, 2020, 3:55 PM
    As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.

    But, Collins cautioned, “that doesn’t mean necessarily that the outbreak has exploded at an even more rapid rate.”

    “It just means we’re now able to find out who’s out there, who is infected,” because “testing is now going to be much more available across the country,” he said.

    As director of NIH, Collins oversees the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, whose own director, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has become a trusted authority during the coronavirus crisis.

    FILEFrancis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health testifies before a House appropriations... moreFrancis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health testifies before a House appropriations subcommittees hearing on "National Institutes of Health Budget Request for FY2021," March 4, 2020, in Washington.
    AFP via Getty Images, FILE
    According to Collins, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases inside the United States currently stands at about 14,000, and, “We will probably see four, five times that number of cases a week or 10 days from now."

    Johns Hopkins University reports an even higher number of currently confirmed cases in the United States, nearing 17,000. An estimated 225 Americans have died.

    MORE: Online videos 'predicted' details of deadly outbreak, but Trump called coronavirus 'unforeseen problem'
    "When will we be out the other side of this?” Collins asked rhetorically on the Friday call. “I have no crystal ball. ... Will we be back [to normal] by July or August or September? I have no idea

    300 more word

  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.