Friday, March 13, 2020

Coronavirus Blues and Charting Our Way Forward


We finally got the news that our university classes are going online for two weeks, after which the situation will be re-assessed.

I was glad to receive the email and I think that re-assessing the situation in 2 weeks is entirely reasonable.

I'm fortunate that my job can be shifted online.

What do the next two weeks hold?

The coronavirus charts for cases of infection show exponential growth so a few cases can multiply into thousands quickly.

You can read the latest statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy

If you prefer established media, here is the WSJ's report from yesterday: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-coronavirus-cases-top-1-000-11583917794

I see several likely scenarios:
Scenario 1: Personal Impacts Moderate to High - Infrastrucural Impacts Manageable - This scenario is based on Angela Merkel's comments that up to 70 percent of Germany could be impacted, one can imagine the virus impacting the global population, with substantial but limited effects, that do not disrupt infrastructures significantly, although do present deep personal losses.

Scenario 1A: Same scenario as above but with a second impact in the fall when the virus returns, as they are inclined to do. The negative effects could accumulate under this scenario.

Scenario 2: Personal Impacts High - Infrastructural Impacts Disruptive - This scenario is based on the Italian case and also, longer-term, the problems of re-infection with worse illness - see my discussion here: https://majiasblog.blogspot.com/2020/03/does-coronavirus-covid-19-promote-re.html


I'm collecting data to see which scenario is most probable, but strongly believe that the case of South Korea demonstrates that effective policy and risk communication can prevent emergence of Scenario 2.

That is, the most likely scenario is a direct outcome of our governmental, community and individual competences in managing the crisis.

Government must be pro-active, transparent, and responsive to human needs and civil liberties.

Communities must also be pro-active, transparent, and responsive.

The time for both self-care and caring for your community is upon us.







3 comments:

  1. Business as usual as a pandemic strikes amerikkka and the world. The United Deathhole of america has deathcare and is woefully unprepared. The monster in charge, lies and sets the stage for an unprecedented genocidal pandemic, as it twists and turns, delays any meaningful action and lies about the pandemic.

    A national state of emergency declared. Deranged-sociopathic sadists and demagogues, spoonfeed the worst lies and irresponsible garbage about the corona virus.
    Billions for nukes, for nuke weapons. Billions for oil and gas corporate money as the country is ravaged by corona.

    Cops and and security deployed at major hospitals in major cities across the USA as the pandemic grows and store shelves are emptied. Cops deployed to keep people out, not to let them in.

    That is Murican reality now.

    Trillions for nuclear madness for the evil monkeys at the pentagon. Trillions to bail out the crooks on wallstereet, as their fragile, fake house of cards collapses.

    Companies are laying off in Japan and going bankrupt. Japan is erroding quickly. It is terrible because so many people are becoming desparate.

    Less hospital beds in murica than tiny Italy where 26 perccent are people corona infected
    20-26.

    Warm weather will not slow it down.

    In the USA, they do not even bother to hide a blatantly rigged election. The same Corporate Nuclear Fascist State, that brought the nuclear death to the world. The Corporate monsters have installed a demented old fascist, loser candidate that is sure to lose to the Corporate Monster in Charge. The Orange Psycho has installed tactical nuclear weapons on submarines.

    There are numerous nuclear messes going on in the Nuclear Shithole of Amerca. There are 96 rotten, deregulated atrocities ready to blow and burn what is left of the wretched country.

    Millions of homeless. An abyssmal police state. If you get sick you will be bankrupt and if elderly or marginalized now, probably die. That is from from Deathcare Medical . Not healthcare.

    An orwellian hellstate. A nightmare of the worst propagada and lies possible. It will not last 4 more years of the sadism, genocide and madness.

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  3. Vermont just cancelled classes for all schools.

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